Although clearance rates went up a teeny, tiny bit nationally, I’m still curious why they have been generally declining over the years. It was such a huge shock to me to discover while I was writing the book that clearance rates have, in fact, been slowly going down. What really amazed me was, the decline in clearance rates began around the time DNA started to be used forensically. “So what?” DNA hasn’t made a difference?? It just doesn’t make sense.

I have a theory. “DNA is used in cases that were probably going to lead to an arrest anyway (clearance rates refer to arrests, not convictions).” Cases where the murderer got close and left all sorts of trace evidence besides DNA. So it isn’t helping so much in arrests, those arrests were going to be made anyway. BUT, it’s helping build stronger cases and leading to more convictions. This is also contributing to the overall number of murders going down (more murderers in jail). But it wouldn’t necessarily have an effect on clearance rates.

Also, perhaps by quite naturally focusing on the cases they can solve and win, they are putting just a little less attention on the cases that are a lot harder to solve. Because the clearance rates aren’t plummeting. They are going down very slowly, over time. So you only have to have a slight shift in attention to explain it. And there has been a shift in attention towards DNA. The thing is, they can’t always recover DNA from a murder scene.

I have a number of theories, which I will be posting over the weeks and months to come.

According to the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports, in 2004 the national clearance rate was 62.6%. That’s up from 62.4 in 2003%.

However, in an FBI preliminary report, murder was up 2.1% nationally in the first six months of 2005 (with the greatest increase in the midwest, 4.9%). The year before, murder had gone down 5.7% nationally.

Other murder facts (I don’t have where I cut and pasted this from! I don’t know who to give credit, but it’s not me): “The summer months are the most popular month to be murdered. Saturday was the most popular day-of-the-week to be murdered, followed by Friday. Murder rates are higher in the afternoon than in the morning, but are highest at night.”

I just learned about this online tutorial about forensic DNA, Principles of Forensic DNA. It’s meant for prosecutors, defense attorneys, and judges, but I’d be curious to hear how it is if anyone gives it a try.

If the police get the bad guys, then the attorneys go in for the kill.

(This picture was taken by an MIT student named Philip Guo in 2001.)

First there are the feds, the U. S. Attorneys who prosecute federal crimes (oh God, I sound like a Law and Order episode). From their website:

The United States Attorneys serve as the nation’s principal litigators under the direction of the Attorney General. They conduct most of the trial work in which the United States is a party, and they have three statutory responsibilities:

– The prosecution of criminal cases brought by the Federal government.
– The prosecution and defense of civil cases in which the United States is a party.
– The collection of debts owed the Federal government which are administratively uncollectible.

In New York there are four U.S. Attorneys. The Eastern District, which covers Brooklyn, the Southern District, which covers Manhattan, the Northern District (their office is in Syracuse) and the Western District (offices in Buffalo and Rochester.)

And then there are the local guys, the attorneys for New York City, the District Attorney and the ADAs (Assistant District Attorneys). In New York there are five DAs, one for each borough. In Manhattan, where I live, our DA is Robert Morgenthau. He’s something like 200 years old, but he’s so good we pray science will keep him alive forever.

There are so many websites I really don’t know where to begin. Here’s where you can find the office for your U. S. Attorney.

Here’s how they’re doing. Their felony conviction rate is slowly going up. Good work, attorneys!

I’m including the Brooklyn DA’s website because it’s actually well designed, and has a lot of useful information that’s easy to find.